The team running Apple TV+ subscriber acquisition says LinkedIn isn't working. GA shows almost zero last-click conversions. Should we cut it?
Last-click is giving you the wrong answer here. I ran an incrementality analysis using the geographic holdout we set up last month, plus a Granger causality test on LinkedIn ad exposure vs. downstream Apple TV+ trial signups.
LinkedIn is driving an estimated 1,840 trial signups per month that Google and direct are getting credit for.
Geographic holdout results:
• Markets where LinkedIn Apple TV+ ads ran: 4,210 trial signups
• Matched control markets (no LinkedIn): 2,680 trial signups
• Incremental lift: 57.1% (statistically significant, p < 0.01)
• Of those ~1,530 incremental signups, zero had LinkedIn as last-click — they came through branded search (890), direct to tv.apple.com (410), and App Store organic (230)
The causal pathway for Apple TV+:
LinkedIn functions as an awareness layer for a premium content service. The typical journey — professional sees a LinkedIn ad highlighting Apple TV+ originals like "Severance" or "The Morning Show" (day 0), researches reviews or discusses with friends (day 1–4), searches "Apple TV+ free trial" on Google (day 3–7), and signs up via branded search or direct (day 5–10). Google gets the last-click credit, but the intent was planted by LinkedIn.
What cutting LinkedIn would actually do:
Based on the holdout data, you'd see "Apple TV+ free trial" branded search volume drop ~19% within 3 weeks, and total trial signups fall by roughly 24%. The first week would look fine — that's pipeline LinkedIn already seeded — which makes the mistake especially dangerous.
My recommendation: Keep LinkedIn for Apple TV+, but narrow targeting to Directors and VPs in tech, finance, and media (they showed 2.3x the incremental conversion rate of the broader professional audience). This should improve LinkedIn's cost-per-incremental-signup by ~40%.
11:43 AM
Results are based on causal inference models applied to your campaign data. Always verify critical decisions with your team.