Samsung is launching the Galaxy S25 next week. What should we expect and how should we prepare?
I pulled data from Samsung's last 3 major launches (S24, S24 Ultra, Z Fold 5) to model the likely impact on your iPhone campaigns.
Expected impact in week 1:
Search:
• Your impression share on competitive terms ("best phone 2025", "smartphone comparison") will likely drop 15–22pp as Samsung floods auction with launch budget
• CPCs on those terms typically spike 35–45% during Samsung launches, then normalize by week 3
• Your branded search ("iPhone 16", "buy iPhone") usually stays flat — Samsung launches don't cannibalize existing iPhone intent
Social:
• Meta CPMs in the tech/mobile vertical typically rise 8–12% during major Samsung launches due to increased competition
• Your CTR on comparison-style creatives ("iPhone vs. Galaxy") historically spikes during Samsung launch weeks — 3.2% vs. 2.1% average
• Interest in "switch from Samsung to iPhone" content doubles in the 2 weeks after a Samsung launch as disappointed upgraders consider alternatives
What I'd do:
• Pre-launch (now): Increase bids 15% on your branded terms to defend impression share. Cost is minimal because CTR on branded is high
• Launch week: Pause non-brand competitive Search to avoid inflated CPCs. Reallocate that budget to Meta, where your "Why iPhone" comparison creative has historically outperformed during Samsung launches
• Week 2–3: Activate a "switcher" campaign targeting Samsung-related audiences on Meta and YouTube. Based on the S24 launch, this segment converts at 4.7% — your highest-performing acquisition audience
• Week 4: Resume non-brand competitive Search as Samsung's launch spend normalizes
Historical pattern: After the S24 launch, your iPhone campaigns actually had their best month of the quarter once Samsung's initial burst faded. The launch temporarily raises the entire category's salience.
9:04 AM
Results are based on causal inference models applied to your campaign data. Always verify critical decisions with your team.