We run trade-in promo campaigns whenever carriers launch iPhone deals. Which carrier partnership actually drives incremental sales vs. just capturing existing demand?

I analyzed your trade-in campaign performance across the last 8 carrier promotions (3 Verizon, 3 T-Mobile, 2 AT&T) using synthetic control matching to isolate true incremental lift. Incremental lift by carrier: T-Mobile promotions: 72% of conversions are truly incremental • T-Mobile's customer base over-indexes for Android switchers (Samsung, Google Pixel) • Their trade-in values are typically $100–150 more aggressive than competitors • Your campaigns during T-Mobile promos reach a genuinely new audience — Android users who wouldn't have considered iPhone without the financial incentive • CPA during T-Mobile promos: $34 (incremental), vs. $52 baseline Verizon promotions: 41% incremental • Verizon's base is already heavily iPhone (62% iOS). Most "conversions" during Verizon promos are existing iPhone users upgrading who would have upgraded anyway • The truly incremental portion comes from their family plan promotions — parents adding a line for kids • CPA during Verizon promos: $78 (incremental) AT&T promotions: 38% incremental • Similar to Verizon — high existing iOS share. AT&T's promo structure typically favors existing customers upgrading early • The exception was their "switcher credit" promo in March, which drove 61% incremental by specifically targeting non-Apple users Recommendation: Weight your trade-in campaign budget toward T-Mobile promos at roughly 2x the allocation of Verizon/AT&T. For Verizon and AT&T, only activate campaigns when the promo specifically targets switchers or new lines — skip the generic "upgrade early" promotions since those capture existing demand your organic channels would handle anyway.
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Results are based on causal inference models applied to your campaign data. Always verify critical decisions with your team.